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Powerful political interests - and Russia - maintain a veto over efforts to unite the EU's poorest neighbour.
The shareholders may not know it but Metro, the German supermarket chain, is doing its bit to bring together the divided country of Moldova. The company's two stores in Chisinau, the Moldovan capital, are attracting business not only from government-controlled territory on the western banks of the Dniester river, but also from the eastern breakaway region of Transdniestria.
Transdniestrians face few difficulties at the ramshackle checkpoints on the borders of their unrecognised state. Their problem is having enough cash to shop in the first international hypermarkets in Europe's poorest country.
"Of course, we have good bread in Transdniestria, but for people with money the best place to go to shop is Chisinau," says Viktoria Gladkovskaya, a journalist in Tiraspol, the Transdniestrian capital. "People here and in Chisinau, we don't hate each other. We want to get on. It's the politicians who are separating us."
Moldovans have been separated since a civil war in the early 1990s divided the country, turning it into a source of political instability and organised crime and a point of conflict between Russia and the west.
Hopes of a settlement have risen this year after it emerged that Vladimir Voronin, Moldova's veteran communist president, had secretly initiated talks with Russia, the dominant influence in Transdniestra. The US and the European Union, which, like Russia, have long been involved in maintaining stability in Moldova, were taken by surprise.
When the contacts were made public, Moldovan officials insisted they had not intended to keep the west in the dark or negotiate outside an agreed multilateral framework. Mr Voronin has kept pressing Russia for a deal. However, Moscow has so far kept quiet about its intentions. And time is running out for Mr Voronin's initiative, with tensions between Russia and the west escalating and the Kremlin increasingly concentrating on its presidential elections. Marian Lupu, speaker of the Moldovan parliament, says: "The general atmosphere is very bad, so I don't see a big chance of a settlement."
Locally, the obstacles to a deal have little to do with inter-ethnic relations and everything to do with politics. Powerful business groups involved in smuggling anything from arms to chicken meat do not want a settlement that might interfere with their profitable exploitation of Transdniestria's unrecognised legal status. While the launch of an EU border mission last year has reinforced customs controls, the frontiers are still leaky.
Mr Voronin wants a settlement to boost his flagging popularity. But in Tiraspol, political leaders will reject any deal that would damage their power base. Igor Smirnov, the ageing Kremlin-loyal president, who runs a Soviet-like state with a feared security service, is under growing pressure from Yevgeny Shevchuk, the young speaker of parliament who is backed by Sherrif, the biggest local business group.
But even if Mr Smirnov is eventually pushed out of office, there is little chance of a rapid policy change. Tiraspol last year dropped out of the multilateral settlement talks when the EU border mission started. Later, 97 per cent of Transdniestrians voted in a referendum for independence.
Meanwhile, Moscow has 1,300 troops in Transdniestria as a peacekeeping force and backs Tiraspol with subsidies. Russian companies have big investments and supply almost all of Moldova's oil and gas. One western official says that, for Moscow, the debate comes down to whether it is worth swapping 90-100 per cent influence over Tiraspol for a smaller say in a reunited country.
Under this year's tentative proposals, Moldova would guarantee its neutrality and legalise Transdniestria's privatisations, including those involving Russian companies. There would be new countrywide elections and Tiraspol would be given 18 or 19 seats in the 101-member Moldovan parliament (compared to the 14 it would get on a population basis) plus guaranteed ministerial posts.
The EU is in an awkward position. Following Romania's accession this year, the union shares a border with Moldova. It is popular, especially among young west-oriented Moldovans. But its influence is weakened by the tide of European opinion running against further enlargement.
Whatever happens to the current settlement plans, the EU will struggle to contain a resurgent Russia. It will take more than a few hypermarkets to tie Moldova to the west.
Stefan Wagstyl
www.ftd.de
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