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The parliamentary hearings organized at the Russian State Duma on the issue of settlement of the conflicts in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria quite obviously showed that Russia is not going to go the Kosovo road, and officially recognize the breakaway republics.
On 13 March, the Duma committee on CIS affairs and relations with fellow countrymen heard the three speakers of the parliaments of the breakaway republics on the CIS area, and worked out a set of proposals which will be put up for discussion on 19 March. On the same day, the chamber of Russia's Federal Assembly will hold a plenary meeting, and will elaborate recommendations for the Russian executive structures on setting the relations with the breakaway republics from the post-Soviet area.
The opinion of the above committee, led by the liberal democrat Aleksey Ostrovskiy, is known already. If one reads between the lines, different variants of the events' evolution are possible as regards South Ossetia and Abkhazia, while the things are completely different as concerns Transnistria. The Russian MPs stressed there are still possibilities for the negotiations between Chisinau and Tiraspol, and to find a compromise. Moreover, lawmakers stated that Russia declares for Moldova's territorial integrity and the sanctioning of Transnistria's status within unitary Moldova. In other words, Tiraspol was given hints that there will be no recognition.
Even the most irreconcilably disposed Transnistrian forces have understood it. For instance, the radical youth organization Proriv (Break-through). It is known that the organization has close relations with the Transnistrian state security ministry (MGB). Its actual leader is MGB major Dmitriy Soin, under whose open or non-open leadership Proriv has repeatedly carried out noisy street actions which sometimes were accompanies by insulting attacks against the differently minded people. But at present, when the region's irreplaceable leader Igor Smirnov continues to stubbornly refuse negotiations with Moldova, even Proriv has not contained itself. The organisation's formal leader, Alyona Arshinova, made a special statement. Arshinova told the organisation's newspaper Russkiy Proriv and the Lenta PMR news agency that "the resumption of the process of negotiations between Moldova and Transnistria is not a capitulation or defeat of one of the sides, this is an alternative to the "cold war", which could turn onto a "hot" one at any time. She also said that "the cold war between Moldova and the Transnistrian Moldovan republic takes many forces, ruins the economy and keeps the sides on a permanent war footing."
Certainly, the statement contains bows before the authorities, which are inevitable for an organization which is close to the state structures. But the main thing represents the concrete facts. Arshinova thinks that these facts are as follows:"An alternative to the conflict can be only the negotiations between sides which are equal in rights with the participation of mediators and guarantors. The 5+2 formula is the most up-to-date at present, as it allows to take into account both the interests of the great powers and the will of the peoples living in the conflict-stricken region."
Maybe not everything is that simple in this situation. Given that Proriv sometimes is described as MGB's political mouthpiece, one can suppose that a discontent with Igor Smirnov's obstinacy ripens among the Transnistrian political and financial elite too. If it is like this, we have really a break-through, by analogy with the name of the organization led by Dmitriy Soin and Alyona Arshinova.
Break-through towards good sense, mutual understanding, lasting peace on Dniestre. Break-though to the good will.
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