Russia Has Back Up Leader To Replace Igor Smirnov

Moldova's breakaway region of Transdniestria said last week only the recognition of its independence will foil the West's plans to create "sanitary arc" around Russia and will bring stability to the volatile area. This did not come as good news for Moscow which has decided to help re-unite Moldova. Kommersant sources said that a Russia delegation is to visit Transdniestria's capital of Tiraspol in early February to try to persuade local authorities to make amends with Moldova's federal officials.

In case the Transdniestrian leader, Igor Smirnov, is stubborn as ever, Russia has already got someone to replace him with - the parliament's speaker Evgeny Shevchuk.
Transdniestria's Foreign Ministry late last week came up with grounds for recognizing the breakaway republic's independence. The statement posted on the ministry's website listed advantages for Russia under Transdniestria's independence.

"In case the independence is recognized, the republic will be the only link left to prevent the West from closing the chain of the so-called sanitary arc around Russia," the statement read. "This recognition will not only protect Russian citizens in the region but it will also strengthen the security of Russia." The authors of the paper noted that Ukraine is eager to join NATO, Romania is already a member while Moldova cannot expected to keep being neutral for long. Thus, the statement says, Russia will be able to increase its economic and military presence in the region if it recognizes Transdniestria's independence. Local diplomats also mentioned the Kosovo issue. They believe that independence for Kosovo "may cause destabilization in the whole Europe while Transdniestria's independence will solve an old conflict and ensure stability in this region". "The recognition is thus beneficial to the European Union and Russia alike," Transdniestria's foreign ministry said.

Tiraspol issued the statement to react to the recent visit of its major adversary, Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin, to Moscow. He was received in Moscow's Cathedral of Christ the Savior to get an award for his contribution for uniting Orthodox Christian peoples and in the Kremlin to meet Vladimir Putin tête-à-tête.

Kommersant sources close to Russian-Moldovan talks reported that Mr. Voronin won Moscow's support in the Transdniestrian settlement. The only thing left to take the issue out of the stalemate is to get Transdniestria's persistent President Igor Smirnov back to talks. The republic's leader wants no rapprochement with Chisinau. The recent statement of the Transdniestrian foreign ministry, led by Mr. Smirnov's true ally Valery Litskay, confirmed this.

In early February Moscow is going to try to influence the Transdniestrian leader. Kommersant sources reported that a group of Russian diplomats including Security Council Deputy Secretary Yuri Zubakov, who is responsible for Russia's Moldovan issues, is set to visit Tiraspol. The visit is particularly significant as Mr. Smirnov has fallen out of grace of Russian establishment due to several reasons. First, Moscow did not forget how Russian aid for the area in 2006 was spent on salaries for functionaries, national security officials and the army. Second, Moscow still wants to know what happened to $1 billion that Transdniestrian authorities collected from people for Russian gas but did not pay it to Russia. Finally, last fall Igor Smirnov's allies made the ultimate mistake. The President's daughter-in-law and the Transdniestrian Patriotic Party leader Marina Smirnova who heads Tiraspol's Gazprombank that deals with the lost gas payments called on locals with Russian passports to vote for Fair Russia at the Russian parliamentary election and was even on that party's roll in Yamalo-Nenetsky Autonomous Area.

Meanwhile, Moscow has found another person in the unrecognized republic to deal with. Ambitious speaker of the local parliament and leader of the Renewal party Evgeny Shevchuk stands for interests of Transdniestrian business and has a good grasp of the current situation. He was in Moscow last year to sign a cooperation agreement with United Russia. Thanks to his efforts, 83.58 percent of Transdniestrians with Russian passports voted at the December 2 Duma election for United Russia while Fair Russia mustered as little as 4.96 percent in the region. Mr. Shevchuk got an invitation to the United Russian party session that nominated Dmitry Medvedev for presidency. Soon afterwards, Transdniestria set up a movement in support of Dmitry Medvedev where the lawmaker called on voters and all political forces of the breakaway republic to support Mr. Medvedev at the March presidential election.

Apart from his foreign policy efforts, Mr. Shevchuk is active in trying to turn the local legislature into a new center of authority. The Supreme Council has showed its independence from the Transdniestrian president many times in the past months overriding President Smirnov's veto on several bills including the budget and law on public television.

"Smirnov is not as a staunch member of our society as he used to be," Transdniestria's former Deputy State Security Minister, now deputy Oleg Gudymo, told Kommersant. "There is a gradual interception of authority going on, and the fact that none of the president's veto was enforced proves this. Smirnov is unable to put up resistance. You can see some sort of slackness about him now. He's got no will for victory."

This means that Moscow is ready with a back-up in case it fails to find the common ground with Igor Smirnov. "If the worst comes to the worst - he will follow Askar Akayev's example," a participant of the Transdniestria settlement talks told Kommersant predicting Mr. Smirnov's future.

Vladimir Solovyev

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