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Now,
when there only two weeks left till the end of the first summer month,
it has become very clear that the joint working groups, which were to
play a decisive role in the Transnistrian conflict settlement process,
failed more than two months of activity, if to take as reference point
the day of 11 April, when a meeting of Vladimir Voronin and Igor
Smirnov was held in Bender. The groups of experts which were to solve
many problems in the field of development of infrastructure, railway
communication, ecology, health and humanitarian assistance, have not
started their activity as yet.
There is no secret that the Tiraspol
experts got direct instructions from the Transnistrian top leadership
not to establish any kind of business contacts with the Moldovan side.
The arguments which the breakaway authorities are guided by are as
clear as possible: to drag things till next autumn, when the election
campaign for the parliamentary elections will start in Moldova, after which the opposition forces are likely to replace the communists in power. Should it happen, Tiraspol will be able to withdraw from the negotiating process for good, under the pretext of the „pro-Romanian revanchism".
The
intention of the Transnistrian ministers and MPs to go on leave early
next July is known too. This step is meant to thwart any possibility of
signing some document on the conflict's settlement, no matter whether
it is cardinal pact or a simple protocol accord. For unknown reasons,
Igor Smirnov and his allies consider that, once the present Moldovan
authorities leave the stage, Tiraspol
will be able to have a sign of relief. But it seems, however, that
those from the top power of the breakaway republic are wrong.
Regardless
of the situation, the „independent" Transnistria should suit the fact
that the power in Chisinau remains in the hands of the supporters of Moldova's neutrality and good relations with Russia.
And this even if the two banks of Dniestre fail to find common language
some time. If the political reference points change, the picture is
likely to radically change: the most important opposition force of Moldova, Our Moldova Alliance, already speaks about the need of Moldova's
accession to the NATO. Even the partner of the governmental coalition -
the Christian Democratic Popular Party - does not hide its liking for
the Euro-Atlantic Bloc. We can suppose that the Tiraspol representatives judge the things as follows: if the communists suffer a shock in the elections, Russia
will have to protect Transnistria from the aggression of the
nationalists and NATO supporters. But such a logic reveals the loss of
the contact with the reality.
If the situation does not change in the south-west of the former Soviet Union, Russia
could not want to put up resistance to the new risks, as they represent
a heavy burden for it. And this thing is obvious already. Thus, the
Transnistrian authorities, being inspired by some radical politicians
from Russia,
held a referendum on independence on 17 September 2006. But the
concerned action found no support at the Kremlin. Moreover, during his
recent visit to Tiraspol, a lawmaker of the Russian State Duma said that Transnistria's independence is a road „which leads to nowhere". Also, in 2006, the Transnistrian authorities were relying on the fact that Russia will force Moldova and Ukraine to give up the control over the Transnistrian segment of the Moldovan-Ukrainian border. But this did not happen, however. The
list of these vain hopes could continue endlessly. But we do not think
that it makes any sense. It is important to understand a thing: if the Tiraspol
representatives refuse to negotiate with the present well-disposed
partners, one day, they could find themselves in front of collocutors
who will count more on special operations than on diplomatic actions.
Maybe, however, it would be the case for them to turn to account this
chance for the conflict's settlement, and not to wait for the repeating
of the history's lessons.
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